I put forward some evidence to suggest that spam activity might be inversely correlated with the stock market. Is there any evidence to suggest a similar pattern for computer viruses? It appears so…

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I’m proposing that there is an inverse relationship between stocks, viruses and spam. Put simply when stocks go down, spam and viruses goes up.

Why would this happen?

Well when stocks turn down it signifies economic problems are on the way, and this is linked with a change in the behavior, mood and outlook of society as a whole. When the economy tanks people tend to be more negative and act more negatively.

All of the following tends to happen together:

• Stock markets fall
• The economy suffers
• Unemployment rises
• Crime rises

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This series of articles should have clued you in to how the stock market, the economy and social and cultural trends are entwined.

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When stocks hit a major bottom in March 2009, after the biggest stock crash in decades, it was accompanied with this front page article in The Economist: ‘The bill that could break up Europe‘.
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The U.S was busy signing treaties with all its neighbors and old enemies as the economy boomed through the 1990s. In 1998, as the stock market approached an historic top, Al Gore even signed the Kyoto treaty.

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The 1960s saw the growth of the peace movement which was anti-war and about people getting along, very much a ‘You & Me‘ mentality. Woodstock is seen by many as the icon of the peace movement, is it a coincidence it took place in 1969 after an overall multi-decade up-trend in stocks which was topping?

Similarly the African-American Civil Rights Movement took place during the boom which resulted in the Civil Rights Act of 1968, a culmination of progress for equality throughout the boom period.

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The first two decades of the 20th century saw 6 prominent recessions in the U.S, with approximately 8 years of that period seeing negative growth in the economy. The late 19th century was not much better.

After such a long series of economic pain it is not surprising that an ‘Us & Me‘ mentality appeared in full force as the U.S.A declared war on Germany. But the war was just one sign of the  ‘Us & Me’ mentality.
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The 1920s, for the most part, was a period of economic prosperity referred to as ‘The Roaring Twenties’. Wedged between two world wars it was a time of peace. Women wore shorter skirts and more revealing clothes and consumerism was rife with the popularity of the automobile, the radio and going to the movies.

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The above statement refers to a broad change in behavior that has begun to kick in with increasing force since the stock market top in 2007, and also from the previous top in 1999.

The implications of this are overwhelming! Just look at the events of the last two years.

Economists, businesses, the media and just about everybody appear surprised and shocked by the evolving change in society’s character. “CHANGE” – that’s been the big buzz word of 2009, but all this change need not be such a shock with a little perspective…

It is no coincidence that when the economy suffers people’s behavior, overall mood and outlook changes, sometimes very drastically.

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